12th April 2005: With six games
to go, it's all to play for, which is more than could be said two
seasons ago. After 32 games in their last Premiership season, Albion
lay in 19th place with just 21 points and were a massive 14 points
off 17th placed Birmingham City. This time around, we are the team
lying in 17th place - all we have to do now is stay there.
Whatever happens between now and the end of the season, what Bryan
Robson and the team have achieved since Boxing Day has been nothing
short of remarkable. At that point, Albion had just been hammered
5-0 at home by Liverpool and had a measly 10 points from 19 games,
four points adrift at the bottom of the table. Since then, Albion
have lost just three times in the Premiership winning four and drawing
six. It has been a remarkable turnaround that, for some time, seemed
to be just out of reach. So close to deserved victories at Bolton,
Norwich and Fulham, and at home to Newcastle and Palace, it appeared
that Lady Luck was well and truly against us. But in recent weeks,
it has finally clicked - since we moved into March, Albion have picked
up 11 points from a possible 18 to drag themselves out of the relegation
zone.
So as we move into the final month of the season, Albion are the form
team. They remain unbeaten at home in 2005 in sit in 4th place in
the Premiership form table based on the last six games. Albion's main
rivals for the 17th spot, Southampton and Crystal Palace, lie 11th
and 19th in that form table respectively, and both suffered heavy
defeats at the weekend that are sure to dent their confidence to some
degree. I do believe that it is now one from four - I think that Fulham
and Portsmouth need one more win from their remaining games, which
they will almost certainly get.
Despite their current form, the bookies are still backing the Baggies
for relegation. William Hill are putting Albion as third favourites
at 1/2 behind Norwich (1/20) and Palace (2/5) with Southampton at
8/13. Bet365 are even more pessimistic with the following odds - Norwich
(1/33), Albion (1/3), Palace (2/7) and Southampton (4/5). Ladbookes,
on the other hand, put Albion and Southampton both at 1/2, with Palace
at 1/4 and Norwich an incredible 1/50.
That difference of opinion between three of the top on-line bookies
shows how tight this race is. The reality is that Albion have an advantage
for now, but they have arguably the toughest run-in. Based on the
current table, the average league position of the teams left to play
for Albion is 8.2, for Southampton it is 12, Palace is 13 and Norwich
is 15. I say "arguably" because the nature of the games is not always
dependent upon league position. One only has to look at the Norwich-Man
Utd game at the weekend to see that.
There is no doubt that Albion have some tough games. The next two
are away to teams that are chasing a European finish. But having played
Spurs three times this season already, we know they are beatable.
Albion should've won both of the FA Cup games and, if they get the
luck that deserted them in those matches, they could get a result.
'Boro, on the other hand, are on a poor run of form and certainly
looked vulnerable when Southampton visited the Riverside a couple
of weeks ago.
The toughest games are obviously against Arsenal and Manchester United.
Both are chasing second place and the automatic Champions League qualification
that that brings, but both have proved themselves fallible. Arsenal
have been mightily impressive at home of late scoring 12 goals in
their last three at Highbury, but their away performances have been
less than convincing. A determined Southampton side held them to a
draw at the end of February and two narrow wins against Blackburn
and Middlesbrough have followed. Man Utd are proving extremely difficult
to predict. Ferguson has shown his arrogance of late in picking weakened
sides against Palace and Norwich, and he's been caught out on both
occasions. When Albion go to Old Trafford, I expect the second place
race to still be up for grabs. Ferguson could have half an eye on
the FA Cup Final should they beat Newcastle on Sunday, as well as
the midweek game against Chelsea that follows the match against the
Baggies, but I don't expect Sir Alex to risk too much against Albion
because that second spot is too important. However, if that particular
race is over by then, he could easily play a reserve side!
And so we come to Portsmouth. The Fratton Park club could have a huge
bearing on who goes down. I think they are probably out of it themselves,
but as well as visiting the Hawthorns on the last day of the season,
they also play hosts to Southampton in a fortnight's time. Not only
is that game against their local rivals and their former manager who
many feel deserted them, but it could easily be a game which they
may need to win to secure their Premiership status. If they maintain
the current seven point lead over 18th place in the meantime, victory
could give them just that. Not only that, but the pressure will be
on Southampton as they will need the points more.
There are, of course, two ways at looking at such games. When one
side desperately needs points, and the other doesn't, it can go either
way. Either the side with nothing riding on the result will play without
fear and produce excellent football, or the side with grit and determination
will win the day because they want it more. Bryan Robson has been
very clever in putting no pressure on the Albion players - they've
done remarkably well to get this close and, if it isn't successful,
it's still been a great effort. That attitude, coupled with the confidence
and flair that the team is exhibiting at present, will hopefully be
the successful combination. Norwich showed what a team without expectation
can produce on their day against Man Utd. Southampton, on the other
hand, are expected to survive because they always do - but then we
used to say that about Coventry.
Before the crunch game against Pompey, Southampton have games at home
to Villa and away to Bolton, both of which take place before Albion's
next game. We saw in the first half on Sunday how good Villa can be,
and after a heavy defeat at Blackburn, Redknapp will need all of his
motivational skills to get his side in the right mental state. Bolton,
of course, are still pushing for a European place and are in good
form having won 8 of their last 11 Premiership games.
After the Pompey game, Southampton face Norwich at home, Palace away
and then finish at home to Man Utd. If United do still need points
on the last day of the season, I can't see the Saints standing in
their way, and as for the other two games, they will both be nervy
affairs and the results could go either way.
Crystal Palace start their run in with a crunch game against Norwich
on Saturday. A win will see them move above the Albion (we could easily
be 19th by 5pm on Saturday), but defeat will see Norwich level on
points with Palace and back in the hunt. It will be another nervy
game that will most likely be decided by a mistake. After that, they
have three tough games - at Blackburn, home to Liverpool and away
to Newcastle - before the crunch game with Southampton. They finish
at the Valley which, given Charlton's current form, could be an easy
three points. But Blackburn, Liverpool and Newcastle could all be
tough. Only Liverpool have something to play for, but Blackburn and
Newcastle will both offer stern tests providing they can get themselves
up for the game.
I do think that Norwich have left themselves with too much to do,
particularly with their leaky defence, but they have the easiest run-in.
Charlton are the highest place team that they face, and if they can
beat Palace and Southampton, they are in with a shout. Their other
games are at home to Newcastle and Birmingham, and away to Fulham
- all sides with nothing to play for (well, Fulham should be safe
by the last game of the season barring an almighty collapse).
The only conclusion I can draw is that it is too close to call. Albion
have the advantage in position and form, although they could conceivably
be five points adrift of 17th before they play again, albeit with
two games in hand. After a five match unbeaten run, Southampton have
lost two on the trot, conceding six goals in the process, and Harry
will need to get them going again. Palace seem to have lost their
way a little after three straight defeats, but they have a chance
to get back to winning ways against Norwich, although the Canaries
are on a high after their unexpected win against Man Utd, producing
their first points since they beat the Albion.
Saturday's games will provide further insight, of course. From Southampton's
point of view, the home game against Villa is one they will feel that
they need to win - doing so would make them clear favourites to stay
up. And the Palace-Norwich game will give some clue as to which of
those teams has the mettle for the fight.
From our point of view, I do believe that Albion are capable of completing
this Great Escape, but a lot will depend on Lady Luck. If she smiles
a blue and white smile, the most remarkable come back in Premiership
history might just happen.
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